Update #1: 一些美國零售業財報，S&P 500成分股變化

來一些Update，這是比較定期的，除了企業與產業消息之外，我也會簡短寫一些想法跟觀察，有些有趣的圖也會分享一下。

Costco (COST)

Costco的FY2022Q1財報，主要數字都是比分析師預期好，完全不受基期影響：

• 營收YOY +17% (beat 1.9%)，Comp YOY +15%，Adjusted Comp YOY +9.8% (Beat 90 bps)，EPS 2.98 (YOY 13.7%)
• Traffic YOY 6.8%，Ticker YOY 7.7%
• 電商Adjusted Comp YOY 13.3%，北美以外地區 Adjusted Comp YoY 10.9%
• OP Margin 3.4% (Beat)，去年同期是3.3%

COST對通膨的看法，供應商的通膨4.5%-5%，有在加速，其實也跟美國 headline CPI 6%附近的數據一樣 (最新的是6.8%)，Delay的情況還是有。

• About 79% of our import containers are late by an average of 51 days, a few percentage of those are actually a few days early, and many of them are a few days more than 51 late.
• For Q1 '22 and talking with our merchants -- senior merchants, we estimate that overall year-over-year price inflation to be in the 4.5% to 5% range. That's a little bit higher of an estimated inflation rate that I discussed a quarter ago, but I think pretty consistent with what you read out there. [NOTE: this compares to 1-1.5% in March, 2.5-3.5% in May, and 3.5-4.5% in September]”

COST談到議價能力，這是很有趣的點，也點出了COST競爭力，由數字上可以看出為何在通膨壓力下，OPM 還可以增加，Ticket YOY 7.7%，供應商通膨4.5%-5%，價格都轉嫁給消費者了，對供應商有議價能力，消費者又不管提價照樣買，COST護城河還是很強。

• And arguably, I can't think of any company that has the buying power per item that we do because we do our roughly $200 billion in sales with 4,000-ish items versus anybody else that's doing it with hundreds of thousands of items or 50,000 items.”

財報公布後上漲6.58%，競爭力如此強，也難怪PE還在歷史高點附近的43.4倍，我不是Costco會員，但我知道Costco生意的強，所以我當Costco股東。

United Natural Foods (UNFI)

有機食品零售商UNFI的財報，營收YOY +4.7%，這就看出COST的強了，同樣的，UNFI也認為通膨不會降溫，看來美國的結構性通膨持續。

• We saw inflation impact our wholesale net sales by 2.5% to 3%, net of volume and mix changes. Due to the cost-plus nature of the majority of our pricing agreements, inflation is typically a positive driver of top line revenue and margin gains. For Q1, our growth can be looked at as roughly half coming from new business wins, net of expected market contraction, and half coming from inflation. At least for the next several months, we don't see inflation easing. Our procurement and merchandising teams are working closely with our suppliers to offset some of these price hikes with increased promotional activity to help our customers manage through this period.”

Visa (V)

Visa公布11月的U.S. Spending Momentum Index，看起來美國消費者還能應付通膨

• the U.S. Spending Momentum Index (SMI) was 111.9 in November (seasonally adjusted), up 1.3 points from October, marking the second consecutive month of acceleration in consumer spending momentum. The SMI’s further increase above 100 signals that even more consumers are spending more than they did a year ago.
• This month’s SMI reading once again reinforces the narrative that consumer spending remains robust to round out this year,” said Wayne Best, Visa’s Chief Economist. “It appears that consumers are looking past the high inflation readings in recent months at least for the time being.”

S&P 500與Shiller PE

看到一篇蠻有趣的Twitter Thread，關於S&P 500成分股的變化：

這可以看到美國企業10年來的變化，很有趣，此外，目前的Schiller PE (Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio)接近歷史高點

 

Another way to show this... the current top ten is > 30% of the index and was < 10% ten years ago. And I think it’s safe to assume the earnings of these companies is up 500-1000%+ over this period (too lazy to calc).

Looks like $GOOGL earned $92 and $MSFT earned $8 (EPS) the last 4 quarters (which if used as the denominator for March 2020 lows would be P/Es of ~11x and ~17x).

If you’re using CAPE to value US equity markets, you’re betting these earnings will fall 60%+ permanently.

TLDR... if you think the CAPE makes US stocks expensive, you largely think FAAMG earnings will revert back to where they were 5+ years ago permanently

最後一段話，我是不知道他怎麼算的，但光看到CAPE，真的是很貴，但看到成分股變化，也可以說合理，FAAMG+Tesla+Nvidia的競爭力，成長性應該是大家都知道的，這個也值得去深究一下。