Update #2: 房市相關財報; Never Disappointing Consumers

來看一下房市相關企業的財報，美國房市很強，但房價撐得住嗎？

Toll Brothers (TOL)

營建商TOL的財報，房市還是強，美國人也買房抗通膨？不過美國房市看起來似乎有結構性的需求，而非循環性因素，TOL有提到人口因素以及美國人對工作跟家庭態度的轉變。

• Net income and earnings per share were $374.3 million and $3.02 per share diluted, compared to net income of $199.3 million and $1.55 per share diluted in FY 2020’s fourth quarter.
• Home sales revenues were $2.95 billion, up 18% compared to FY 2020’s fourth quarter; delivered homes were 3,341, up 14%.
• Backlog value was $9.50 billion at fourth quarter end, up 49% compared to FY 2020’s fourth quarter; homes in backlog were 10,302, up 32%
• Demand remains very strong. The housing market continues to benefit from solid fundamentals, including favorable demographics, pent up demand from over a decade of underproduction of new homes, low mortgage rates, a tight resale market, and permanent changes to the way Americans view life, work and home. We believe these trends will continue to drive strong demand for our first-time, move-up and active adult communities well into the future.
• According to a Redfin report from last week, in the last full week of November, the number of homes for sale nationwide is at an all-time low, and 1/3 of homes sold in 1 week or less during the month of November…This is a very strong market nationwide…we sit today in a very strong housing market.

TOL特別提到提價能力，買房抗通膨，但民眾收入可以撐得住房價嗎？

• Our ability to continue raising prices illustrates the deep strength of this housing market as well as the advantages we enjoy as America's luxury homebuilder. This week, we raised prices again in all of our markets nationwide.

關於供應鏈，一樣吃緊，短期內看不到改善，也就是說，通膨難以往下，結構性通膨

• We, like the rest of the industry, continue to be challenged by significant supply chain and labor constraints that are extending delivery times for our homes. Notwithstanding these issues, which we expect to continue for the foreseeable future, we project 20% revenue growth in FY 2022.
• In our fourth quarter, we saw average cycle times increase by about 2 weeks compared to the third quarter. On average, it is now taking us about 6 to 8 weeks longer to deliver a home than it took 1 year ago. We do not anticipate these labor and supply chain conditions will improve in the near term.

Redfin (RDFN)

線上房屋買賣平台RDFN有提到房價：

• The median home-sale price hit a new all-time high of $360,250, up 14% year over year. This was up 30% from the same period in 2019.
• The median home-sale price hit a new all-time high of $360,250, up 14% year over year. This was up 30% from the same period in 2019.
• Homebuying demand seems to be returning to a slowdown trend that we'd typically expect to see in the last few weeks of the year. The latest research on the Omicron variant seems to be easing consumers' worst fears, but a lot of uncertainty remains in the economy—from inflation, jobs, and wages to how the Fed reacts to those factors. Amid all that economic uncertainty, the notion that home prices will continue to grow in the near-term feels relatively certain.

這也印證了TOL的基本面，美國房市很強，但RDFN股價YTD下跌41.5%，TOL上漲71.6%，同樣面對房市，但股價表現差很多，RDFN的弱勢跟OPEN有關嗎？線上房屋買賣是趨勢，但看起來今年還沒印證這情況。

RH (RH)

奢侈家具零售商RH公布的財報：

• 營收YOY +19%(上季+39%)
• 毛利率上升180 bps到50.2%，賣奢侈品家具真的很賺，EPS YOY +13%
• 今年第三度調升公司展望
• While we believe a conservative view of revenues in the fourth quarter is prudent due to the uncertainties posed by the new virus variant, the postponed opening of our new San Francisco Gallery until the Spring, and the continued shipping and port delays, the power of our operating model gives us the confidence to raise our outlook for fiscal 2021 for the third time this year.
• When you buy a home, you're kind of furnishing it for years. You're doing stuff to it for years. And now that it's even more important and you're spending more time there and you predict you might be spending more time there in the future, and there might be a risk of another pandemic, I think the home might get a permanent shift here.
• How big? Is it going to slow down? Sure. Like we're not going to see the same growth rates. I mean -- but then again, if you saw our business plan for last year, it was a lot lower than how we performed because we thought there could be a big giveback after the lift of 2020. And we thought that we give back in 2021. Will there be a giveback in '22? I don't know.

跟房市相關的真的很好，雖然持續受到原物料delay影響。RH也有提到房市有結構性需求，去年受惠疫情，然後變成結構性的改變，難怪RH三度調升展望。

關於通膨，RH講得很直白，供應鏈一團混亂，通膨持續存在。

• I’m not even sure price changes are over yet...everywhere it’s happening. Restaurants’ crazy price increases and a lot of the input costs. 
• I would have thought a lot of things would have gone wrong by now. But again, we’ve never seen this one. The world has never seen it. So I think price increases are going to probably be here for a while.
• Let’s start with supply chain and everything. It’s a mess, okay. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen. So it’s – it’s a time to improvise, adapt overcome. It’s time to collaborate more deeply than you have ever collaborated with your partners, whether it’s on the manufacturing side, the freight side, what you are doing to the parts, what we are doing with just line haul, everything, right. There is execution issues everywhere. There is cost inflation everywhere.

RH CEO Gary Friedman講了一段關於顧客預期的話，非常棒，學起來

• Don’t say 4 weeks if it’s going to be 5, if there is a risk of 5. If there is a risk of 5, say, 6. And if we lose a little demand that might happen, but there is nothing worse than disappointing consumers.

全球房價 vs. 可支配所得

我還沒有美國的資料，但應該差不多的走勢，所得撐不住房價了，看看台灣就知道，但房價還是一路噴，真的是結構性需求(?)