Update #4: 飛機短缺，美國消費者財務體質

飛機供不應求

根據金融時報報導，現在航空公司要等兩年才會有新的單走道飛機，飛機分單走道跟雙走道，單走道是Airbus跟Boeing的主力，航空公司現在也最愛單走道，省油是很大原因，然後單走道的載客量跟航程都有再增加，現在發生需要等兩年也不意外，疫情前這兩家的訂單就累積了七年左右，疫情又讓供應鏈吃緊，然後飛機製造又是寡占，航空公司在怎麼急，除了這兩家，也找不到其他家可以補，消費者更不會想坐中國或俄羅斯製造的飛機，現在是等生活在正常化了，Boeing跟Airbus就等於是躺著數錢，但問題是，生活何時可以回到疫情前的正常呢？

• Airlines ordering popular single-aisle jets used on short-haul routes face a two-year wait for delivery as supply constraints persist, according to Airbus, the world’s largest aircraft-maker.
• demand from airlines for the company’s A320 family of jets was so strong that “by and large” delivery slots for larger orders were now around 2024-25.
• There is a supply constraint for the most desirable assets out there . . . on the single-aisle, this points towards the A320 and A321 and now also the A220.
• demand was fundamentally being driven by the need for more fuel-efficient aircraft.
• The Covid crisis has accelerated the realisation that the transition to more . . . fuel-efficient technology is inevitable.
• with many carriers, including Australia’s Qantas, now looking to renew their fleets, pressures have built up in the aerospace supply chain.
• Just 13 per cent of today’s global commercial fleet is of the latest generation.

美國消費者財務體質

美國消費者的財務體質是過去30年最好的情況，幾張不錯的圖：

 

家戶總負債占GDP目前是75%，金融海嘯是100%。

 美國家戶債務負擔佔可支配所得是1980年代以來最低。

 

美國家戶總財富占GDP是歷史新高。

美國民眾有錢，負債又低，這等於說消費能力很強，等到生活正常化，消費的成長潛力可說是很大。