Update #8: 供應鏈，BOA 基金經理人調查

供應鏈

看看一些公司對供應鏈的看法：改善中，但還沒回到正常

What I would say is I think we feel pretty good about how things are moving and how things are improving. So we think we should – as we progress, we think we should get out of some of this logistics tightness that you’re hearing, not just from us, but from other companies as well. And again, it is predominantly a U.S. issue. - Colgate Palmolive

the supply chain will continue to be challenged. We really do believe that that will continue to be a challenge through 2022, and likely into the early part of 2023. Now, the supply chain challenges are easing - pre-holiday, you had easily over 100 vessels off the coast of California, today it’s probably about half of that, so it’s definitely easing but there’s still pressure. - Macy's

晶片荒仍未完全改善

The sense of shortages hasn’t changed at all. We expect the current tight supply will last until March next year” at the earliest. -Toshiba Corp 

BOA 3月經理人調查報告

這是很好的反指標報告，尤其當極端值出現時，最新報告幾乎是一片悲觀，看多原物料，也難怪本周出現反轉。

首先，認為今年是late cycle的比率也變高，這還沒到極端值，但可以看到歷史資料，隨著股市上漲，認為late cycle的比例越高，不意外，但現在從2020年初的多頭才第二年，就已經60%比例預估late cycle，看到過去多頭第二年的比例約在10-20%，這次不一樣。

所以，看空的人變多了，一二月這樣下跌，會有這結果不意外

對今年獲利的預估也到歷史悲觀水準

因此，基金經理人的現金部位也拉高，到極端值水位

現在最積極布局的是原物料，現金，核心消費跟醫療，很防禦的布局，賣最多的是科技跟歐洲。