Update #6: 串流影音市場，Roku

美國影音串流市場

Nielsen公布的串流時數占電視觀看時數的比重：

串流占比是28%，可見串流市場成長空間還很大，Netflix還是第一，Disney才2%，雖然Disney+全球用戶數是Netflix的一半，這也不意外，Disney+的內容很強，但數量遠不如Netflix，漫威系列的影集集數大多不超過8集，所以很難讓用戶黏在Disney+上面，Netflix過去一個世紀花大錢投資內容算是達到很強的護城河。

Roku對Streaming的看法

Roku在美國電視串流的地位越來越重要，在1/6花旗Conference上有提到一些產業的看法，市場成長潛力很大，所以很多媒體或科技公司都陸續加入串流，但Roku認為串流媒體數量會開始變少：

• So I do think there's an idea that there'll probably be less apps, not more apps over time on Roku and just in the TV ecosystem. And I do think that could translate into opportunities for Roku, whether it's on the content side, whether it's on the advertising side, certainly, there's a lot of different ways we can do that, whether it's partnership, whether it's acquisitions.

隨著消費者走入串流，電視廣告也開始流到串流，Roku在這兩年也擴大了這方面的投資：

• And so we have seen more advertisers, since the pandemic, start to move more of their money over to streaming. They're still well behind the viewership.
• And so we certainly try to walk a lot of the traditional TV advertisers from the kind of historical way of buying TV spots to the fact that our streaming platform in our ad stack, our digital -- native digital-first advertising, they have all those capabilities.

Roku是做串流盒子起家，擴大到智慧電視的作業系統，但實際上賺的錢是廣告，真的驅動Roku的成長是內容：

• It's really the content that's driving that Roku flywheel. So it directly translates into us improving reach, driving incremental viewership, which then we directly monetize via the video ad business.

不免俗地，也會講到供應鏈，還看不到明顯改善：

• But in terms of our last guidance, we talked about that we thought some of the supply chain constraints were going to continue through Q4 and into 2022. So largely, I would say that the world hasn't gotten materially better from that standpoint. But yes, unfortunately, I don't think we're out of the woods quite yet.

上一季財報就是因為硬體銷量下滑，導致投資人擔心用戶成長，造成股價重挫到現在，以上面對供應鏈的comment，看來Q4的狀況一樣，但實際上，看Roku是要看它廣告平台的成長，而非硬體的銷量，當然用戶成長還是重要，但用戶的黏著度會是更重要的指標，廣告是跟著眼球，在Roku平台上面的時間越久，廣告就會越多。Roku股價跌到現在，EV/Sales是歷史低點附近，6.4x，而且Roku已經有Earnings，Bloomberg預估2022-2024 EPS年成長50%，2023年PE 50倍，這是不貴的評價。