Update #10: 美國房市，企業對目前景氣看法
美國房市
房市對利率最敏感，先看看美國房貸利率走勢，今年快速攀升。
但拉長來看，目前4%根本是小菜
The median home sale price rose 3.5% between January and February, the fastest month-over-month gain ever seen during the winter months. Prices were up 16% year over year to an all-time high of $389,500 in February as the number of homes for sale fell to another new low. The lack of inventory is holding back home sales, which fell 4% from January.
An acute shortage of homes for sale continues to stymie buyers in the current market,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Rather than dropping out of the housing market, homebuyers only seem to be getting even more voracious, driving prices up at a startling clip. Typically, rising mortgage rates weaken demand for homes—we don’t see demand weakening yet, but we will be watching to see if buyers back off or remain steadfast amidst rising borrowing costs.
搶購潮仍然有
雖然RedFin沒看到房市需求轉弱，但實際數據是有掉的，美國2月的成屋銷售MOM下滑7%，因為每月的付款年增28%，不過一個月的資料還不能構成趨勢。而Redfin也提到搶購潮可能到一個段落：
The bidding wars that opened 2022 may be cresting--It feels crazy for demand to be so strong in the midst of war, market volatility, and inflation. We expected rates to increase over 2022 from 3.3% to 3.8%. That happened just in January. Then, mostly yesterday in a few hours, we got a hike of nearly the same size, to 4.4%--Even still, we’re supply-constrained. Last quarter, 18.4% of homes sold to investors, a record; the 10-year average prior to the pandemic was 12.6%. Another record: 71% of homes in February sold in bidding wars. Pre-pandemic, when inventory was still low, the average was 55%--Year to date, the number of new listings is down, but only 6%. The average number of homes for sale is down much more: 24%--The bidding wars created by this inventory crunch have been the worst I've seen in 17 years.
企業對目前景氣看法
整理一下近期一些企業concall對景氣的看法，雖然Fed說無衰退危機，但企業的說法有點不太不符合。
We estimate the effect of Omicron-driven volume softness in our Q3 results was approximately $350 million. While it was significant, it was also temporary and we have seen volume rebound from January levels. - FedEx
The conflict in Europe was really tragic. First ground war like that in many, many years. And -- but the impact on the economy is something that we have to see. I think it starts with the cost of fuel. As fuel cost goes up around the world, inflation goes up, and then because of that, the potential economic slowdown. How long this lasts is anybody's guess. – FedEx
With fuel prices increasing around the world, today, we announced a fuel surcharge increase effective April 4 for FedEx Express, Ground and Freight. Additional details can be found on fedex.com. - FedEx
FedEx看到的是Omicron影響很短暫，但俄烏戰爭可能引發景氣的放緩，然後，FedEX要開始漲價來應付燃料價格的上漲。
Consumers are trying to ration their money a little bit more carefully because they're trying to smooth out their cash flow. – Affirm
連高成長的BNPL龍頭Affirm也看到消費者開始節省支出。
t's clearly a slowdown that we are seeing on the back of the 0 COVID approach that China takes but also the clampdown on technology and so the overall situation geopolitically that is certainly somewhat unclear, let's put it this way." - Credit Suisse
Moving beyond the first order to the second-order, where I think, by the way, we still are, right, is what I would call contingent and counter-party risks. So the contingent risk is that you have credit exposure to somebody who themselves have credit exposures in Russia--Phase III or the third-order effect is what is going to happen to the broader economies of Europe, the U.K. and the U.S." – Barclays
歐洲兩家投行認為景氣也有放緩的狀況，特別是在歐洲，而對俄烏戰爭的第二層影響還未知。
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