讀美股

美國房市 房市對利率最敏感，先看看美國房貸利率走勢，今年快速攀升。 但拉長來看，目前4%根本是小菜   房貸利率還是歷史低水位，但在預期未來升息跟漲價的心理下，房價仍然往上衝，看到房地產資訊網站RedFn說的 The median home sale price rose 3.5% between January and February, the fastest month-over-month gain ever seen during the winter months. Prices were up 16% year over year to an all-time high of $389,500 in February as the number of homes for sale fell to another new low. The lack of inventory is holding back home sales, which fell 4% from January. An acute shortage of homes for sale continues to stymie buyers in the current market,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Rather than dropping out of the housing market, homebuyers only seem to be getting even more voracious, driving prices up at a startling clip. Typically, rising mortgage rates weaken demand for homes—we don’t see demand weakening yet, but we will be watching to see if buyers back off or remain steadfast amidst rising borrowing costs. 搶購潮仍然有   雖然RedFin沒看到房市需求轉弱，但實際數據是有掉的，美國2月的成屋銷售MOM下滑7%，因為每月的付款年增28...

  保時捷EV計畫 “In 2030, the share of all new vehicles with an all-electric drive should be more than 80 per cent,” said Oliver Blume, chief executive, who added that the transition was “running faster [than Porsche] planned years ago”. The brand’s first purpose-built electric car, the Taycan, has been far more successful than executives or analysts predicted. It was launched in 2020 and outsold the 911 model in 2021. 因為Taycan賣的比911好，保時捷開始積極擴展EV，連時間都講出來了，應該會看到越來越多的傳統車廠壓縮電動車的進程，尤其又看到油價到100以上。 Nvidia 新長出來的商業模式 CFO Colette Kress在Morgan Stanley的presentation: But now we're entering into a new phase, a new phase that we are thinking about software and a business model for software to sell separately. Now software is incorporated in all of our systems and platforms today. What fuels so much of our data center focus on AI and on acceleration is the help that we have done in providing both a development platform and software, SDKs and others for that. But now we have an ability to monetize separ...

Fed的經濟預測，不太像是傳統的經濟預測，而比較像是在適當的貨幣政策下，美國總體經濟應該發生的路徑。 疫情發生已經兩周年，如果拿疫情前跟這次的聯準會經濟預測(SEP)跟點陣圖，可以看出幾個有趣的點。 儘管過去兩年美國有嚴重疫情，但Fed認為，並沒有影響到美國景氣的長期路徑，反而是更強，可以從下面的圖看出，比較疫情前最後一次的GDP預測以及這次的GDP預測，這是根據SEP的GDP成長，然後把2019設為100。 這圖可以看出，以這次的SEP來看，與疫情前2019年12月會議的預測相比，美國未來兩年的景氣會成長得比較快，過去兩年的疫情對美國景氣是有幫助的， 這跟我之前提到 過的美國需求要比疫情前強是一致的。 FED基本的看法是，美國經濟是很強的，比疫情前強的景氣，自然會有通膨發生，2019年12月SEP預估2022年的PCE通膨是2.0%，正好是FED的願景，但2022年三月SEP預測的2022年的PCE通膨是4.3%，且至少要到2025年才會再看到2%，所以FED認為，景氣很好，通膨自然就是景氣很好的代價。 這也隱含了FED官員仍相信目前高通膨是過渡性的，只是這過渡性變長了，2020年6月會議的SEP預估通膨從2022年要花1年的時間會到2%，這次的SEP則認為從2022年要花3年以上的時間到2%。等到疫情過去，供應鏈恢復正常，也不用在太多的財政刺激，高通膨自然會下來，終究會回歸2%。 既然通膨會恢復正常，在適當的貨幣政策下(也就是目前的升息7次)，FED不用犧牲太多經濟成長來達到通膨恢復正常。可以看到下圖，比較2019年12月會議跟2022年3月GDP，失業率跟通膨的預估差距： 這圖告訴我們，在適當的貨幣政策下，FED官員認為高通膨會開始放緩，但不會犧牲太多的經濟成長，失業率也比疫情前的預估低，簡單的說，今年升息7次到1.9%，加上明年升息到3次到2.8%，不會造成硬著陸變景氣衰退，而是軟著陸。 這個是最理想的情況，但不一定做得到，當然，Fed也不可能跟大家說，我這樣升息會造成景氣衰退，那這樣鐵定被罵，市場大亂，或許Fed 不敢說真話，但另一個可能性是，Fed沒有那麼的鷹派，因為他們還是預期供應鏈會自我解決，真的鷹派，應該是要向1979年Paul Volker上任時堅決殺通膨，就算景氣衰退也不怕。可以看下圖1970-1990年CPI(藍線)跟Fed fund rat...

供應鏈 看看一些公司對供應鏈的看法：改善中，但還沒回到正常 What I would say is I think we feel pretty good about how things are moving and how things are improving. So we think we should – as we progress, we think we should get out of some of this logistics tightness that you’re hearing, not just from us, but from other companies as well. And again, it is predominantly a U.S. issue. - Colgate Palmolive the supply chain will continue to be challenged. We really do believe that that will continue to be a challenge through 2022, and likely into the early part of 2023. Now, the supply chain challenges are easing - pre-holiday, you had easily over 100 vessels off the coast of California, today it’s probably about half of that, so it’s definitely easing but there’s still pressure. - Macy's 晶片荒仍未完全改善 The sense of shortages hasn’t changed at all. We expect the current tight supply will last until March next year” at the earliest. -Toshiba Corp  BOA 3月經理人調查報告 這是很好的反指標報告，尤其當極端值出現時，最新報告幾乎是一片悲觀，看多原物料，也難怪本周出現反轉。 首先，認為今年是la...

 最近都在研究通膨，所以有一陣子沒寫一些東西，今天先來個update。 美國景氣可能走向衰退? 美國亞特蘭大Fed對GDP的即時預估，本來要開始回到長期的區間，但可以看到在2月底後開始往下，也就是俄烏戰爭爆發引發的原物料大漲後，景氣明顯放緩且快變衰退。不過這指標歷史不長，就是當參考。   我用花旗衰退預測模型來做景氣預測，目前一年內衰退機率是17%，有再往上，但還不到警戒水準。 美國公司債Spread也在往上走，特別是高收益，但水位還是很低   分析師對公司獲利的調升比例也在下滑   Resilience, Recovery, and Longevity in Investing 這段 訪問 蠻有insights，以下有一些摘錄 One of the things that I've talked to you about is when I studied really great investors people who have outside track records of 20 or 30 or 40 years plus there is a habit of, I’d be slightly hyperbolic to call it laziness, but I think about it as a certain sort of tactical laziness. So it's really more an economy, an economy of motion where a lot of them have this ability to sort of calmly sit and observe and not expend very much energy for long periods of time. And then strike very aggressively at a certain point in time. And it’s not that they're doing nothing during the observation periods. 偉大的投資人動作都不多，看起來都沒做事，但實際上都花很多時間在觀察。等到好時機再積極動作。這讓我想起Jim Roger...