Update #7: 美國景氣，投資心法，通膨
最近都在研究通膨，所以有一陣子沒寫一些東西，今天先來個update。
美國景氣可能走向衰退?
美國亞特蘭大Fed對GDP的即時預估，本來要開始回到長期的區間，但可以看到在2月底後開始往下，也就是俄烏戰爭爆發引發的原物料大漲後，景氣明顯放緩且快變衰退。不過這指標歷史不長，就是當參考。
我用花旗衰退預測模型來做景氣預測，目前一年內衰退機率是17%，有再往上，但還不到警戒水準。
分析師對公司獲利的調升比例也在下滑
Resilience, Recovery, and Longevity in Investing
這段訪問蠻有insights，以下有一些摘錄
One of the things that I've talked to you about is when I studied really great investors people who have outside track records of 20 or 30 or 40 years plus there is a habit of, I’d be slightly hyperbolic to call it laziness, but I think about it as a certain sort of tactical laziness.
So it's really more an economy, an economy of motion where a lot of them have this ability to sort of calmly sit and observe and not expend very much energy for long periods of time. And then strike very aggressively at a certain point in time. And it’s not that they're doing nothing during the observation periods.
偉大的投資人動作都不多，看起來都沒做事，但實際上都花很多時間在觀察。等到好時機再積極動作。這讓我想起Jim Rogers的名言：
I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.
They're just slowly accumulating information and observations and they're gaming things out in their head, but really, really low sort of metabolic clip. And it reminds me a lot of looking at any real large, physically large predator in the animal kingdom. They all like just don't move for a lot of time.
They just kind of sit there and, you know, are hanging out in the side and it takes a lot of calories to move a 400 pound muscle machine that's designed for murder. And so they really can't afford to move around. They just have to sit there and look, and then they'll see something that looks like a lot of calories to them.
閱讀，觀察，累積資訊，解讀，等待機會，積極行動
通膨
近期一些企業對通膨的看法：變結構性通膨了，現在沒人在說Transitory，如同我之前說的，先是供給曲線往上，需求曲線也往上，未來是個高通膨的時代。
I think a good bit of the inflation that we're seeing across the country is structural in nature. I think you'll see some soybeans and some wheat and some corn will moderate. Albeit it will remain at higher levels than it has historically. I think we're in a multiyear secular trend higher on oil. But I think wage rates, container cost, import cost, some of those underlying variables, I think we're at a new norm on those. So I think there's a little bit of give and take, but more structural in nature than perhaps other inflationary cycles. - Tractor Supply Company
I think we would view a lot of this inflation as structural. And some of this is a rebound off of levels that came during COVID. Some of this is an increase in – the increase in biodiesels has driven an increase in talo and soybean oil, palm oil, palm kernel oil, and that will likely stay up. So we tended to view most of the raw material increases as structural, as opposed to temporary. - Colgate-Palmolive
It’s been a year since prices of various inputs such as metals began rising, and we still can’t foresee when that trend will reverse. We had to, and will need to, ask our customers to share the burden because no single company can absorb the whole impact anymore. - Toshiba Corp
戰爭加速通膨，這也是歷史上發生過的事情
Inflation is elevated. With the geopolitical instability that we’re seeing with Ukraine and Russia, you’re seeing oil prices escalate, which will only elevate the expenses around essential goods, so there’s still pressure there. - Macy's
We already had an inflation problem, which the war is certain to accelerate. - Greenlight Capital Re
消費者的通膨預期開始往上，下面的圖是美國密大消費者信心的通膨預期，一年的預期快要創歷史高點了
customers, they may not like seeing a 20% increase, but they know that they’re going to get a 20% increase with anybody that they go to. So we’re using price aggressively to combat inflation." - Waste Management
We know from our own surveys and things that you read, that certainly inflation is on people's minds. They're noticing it." – Walmart
Gas prices are elevated across the country, grocery prices are elevated across the country, people are noticing their ticket, so there’s certainly a segment of customers that are going to be more impacted than not. - Macy's
消費者可能因為通膨改變消費習慣，將會減少非核心消費
With inflation, what the consumer is saying is they're going to spend less on discretionary categories and more in the essentials. - United Natural Foods
They're going to cut back on trips first, they're going to cut back on going out to restaurants, other discretionary items to your point, like whether it's a payroll or higher ticket items. - Tractor Supply Company
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